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From Covid “today” to low-carbon “tomorrow”: analysis of foreign forecasts for the development of world energy

A.M. Mastepanov

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The article is devoted to the analysis of forecasts of the world energy development made recently (from September 2020 to May 2021) by the world’s leading analytical centers, taking into account “the new reality” – the coronavirus pandemic. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the development of the world economy and energy consumption and the estimates of its consequences on long-term global economic growth made in various forecasts and prognostic studies are considered. It is shown that the priority of most of the prognostic estimates of the world consumption of primary energy resources made by the world’s leading analytical centers in recent years is a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions by energy and stabilization of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent negative climate changes on our planet. A conditional classification of scenarios for the prospective development of global energy is given, depending on the ideology that is embedded in them, an analysis of the fulfilled forecasts is given. It is concluded that Russian research structures need to develop their own similar forecasts.

Coronavirus pandemic, energy transition, forecasts and scenarios, energy poverty, energy consumption, renewable energy sources, energy efficiency


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Alexey M. Mastepanov
Oil and Gas Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University) 
3, Gubkin st., Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation

For citation:

Mastepanov A.M. (2021). From Covid “today” to low-carbon “tomorrow”: analysis of foreign forecasts for the development of world energy. Georesursy = Georesources, 23(3), pp. 42–52. DOI: