Pages
Download article

From Covid “today” to low-carbon “tomorrow”: analysis of foreign forecasts for the development of world energy

A.M. Mastepanov

Original article

DOI https://doi.org/10.18599/grs.2021.3.7

42-52
rus.

open access

Under a Creative Commons license
The article is devoted to the analysis of forecasts of the world energy development made recently (from September 2020 to May 2021) by the world’s leading analytical centers, taking into account “the new reality” – the coronavirus pandemic. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the development of the world economy and energy consumption and the estimates of its consequences on long-term global economic growth made in various forecasts and prognostic studies are considered. It is shown that the priority of most of the prognostic estimates of the world consumption of primary energy resources made by the world’s leading analytical centers in recent years is a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions by energy and stabilization of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent negative climate changes on our planet. A conditional classification of scenarios for the prospective development of global energy is given, depending on the ideology that is embedded in them, an analysis of the fulfilled forecasts is given. It is concluded that Russian research structures need to develop their own similar forecasts.
 

Coronavirus pandemic, energy transition, forecasts and scenarios, energy poverty, energy consumption, renewable energy sources, energy efficiency

 

  • ВР Energy Outlook 2020 edition. Energy Outlook 2020. 234 p. bp.com
  • Baunov A. (2020). What will international relations be like after the pandemic? Carnegie Moscow Center. (In Russ.). https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81714?utm_source=rssemail&utm_medium=email&
  • Energy Perspectives 2021. Long-term macro and market outlook. Equinor ASA, June 2021. 58 p. https://www.equinor.com/en/sustainability/energy-perspectives.html
  • Energy Transition Outlook 2020. A Global and Regional Forecast to 2050. DNV GL, 306 p.
  • GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 Synopsis (2021). Gas Exporting Countries Forum. https://www.gecf.org/insights/global-gas-outlook?d=2021&p=1
  • Global Economic Prospects (2021). Washington, DC: World Bank, 234 p. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1612-3 
  • IEEJ Outlook 2021 (2021). Energy transition in the post corona world. IEEJ, 206 p. https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/9417.pdf
  • Keramidas K., Fosse F., Diaz-Vazquez A., Schade B., Tchung-Ming S., Weitzel M., Vandyck T., Wojtowicz K. (2021). Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2020: A New Normal Beyond Covid-19. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc
  • Long-term forecasting in energy (2013). Energy Bulletin, 5. Analytical Centre for the Government of the Russian Federation. (In Russ.)
  • Mastepanov A.M. (2016). About global warming, low-carbon energy and the prospects for the oil and gas industry. Ekologicheskii vestnik Rossii [Ecological Bulletin of Russia], 5, pp. 20–31. (In Russ.)
  • Mastepanov A.M. (2017). Climate-driven scenarios in the forecasts of the International Energy Agency. Ekologicheskii vestnik Rossii [Ecological Bulletin of Russia], 6, pp. 4–10. (In Russ.)
  • Mastepanov A.M. (2019). Energy transition: what to prepare for the global oil and gas industry. Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 11(179), pp. 5–6. (In Russ.)
  • Mastepanov A.M. (2020a). Big cycles and black swans. Energeticheskaya politika [Energy Policy], 6(148), pp. 4–19.(In Russ.)
  • Mastepanov A.M. (2020b). A world at a breaking point or a new reality: forecasts for the development of the energy sector and its oil and gas industry. Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 5(185), pp. 9–10. (In Russ.)
  • McKinsey Energy Insights. Global Energy Perspective 2021 (2020). Energy landscape. McKinsey. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2021
  • Net Zero by 2050. A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector (2021). IEA, 223 p. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
  • New Energy Outlook 2020 (2020). Executive Summary. BloombergNEF, 29 p. https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#toc-download
  • World Energy Outlook (2020). OECD/IEA, 464 p. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020
  • World Oil Outlook 2045 (2020). Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 311 p. opec.org
  •  
Alexey M. Mastepanov
Oil and Gas Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University) 
3, Gubkin st., Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation
 

For citation:

Mastepanov A.M. (2021). From Covid “today” to low-carbon “tomorrow”: analysis of foreign forecasts for the development of world energy. Georesursy = Georesources, 23(3), pp. 42–52. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18599/grs.2021.3.7